What is the weather forecast for Halloween 2026?
People are searching for weather trends as Halloween 2026 falls on a Saturday. Early reports from NOAA and the Farmers' Almanac offer differing views on whether the holiday will be unseasonably warm or chilly.
What happened
- 9 Oct, 2026
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center suggests warmer-than-normal temperatures for the northern and western U.S., Alaska, and eastern Hawaii [1], [2].
- 13 Oct, 2026
A shorter-range NOAA outlook predicts below-normal temperatures for parts of the western U.S., including California and Arizona, from October 21 to 27 [1].
What you need to know
A strong El Niño is influencing North American atmospheric patterns [1].
The western U.S. may see heavy rains due to El Niño, while the northeast is more likely to stay dry [2].
The Farmers' Almanac predicts chilly conditions and possible rain across several regions [1].
Areas from Texas to New England have equal chances of being above, near, or below normal temperatures [1].
Exact conditions for October 31 are not yet definitive, as different forecasts provide conflicting signals [1], [2].
Background
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides long-range outlooks based on climate patterns. This year's projections are heavily influenced by a strong El Niño, which has seen sea surface temperatures rise 2.2 degrees Celsius above normal as of early October [2]. Broader climate trends also play a role, with global temperatures increasing by roughly 2° F since 1850. The ten hottest years on record all took place between 2015 and 2024 [2].
Questions people ask
Will it be warm on Halloween 2026?
NOAA suggests warmer-than-usual weather for the West and North, but the Farmers' Almanac predicts chilly spells [1].
Which areas might see rain?
Heavy rain is possible in the southwestern U.S., while the northeast and northern U.S. are more likely to be dry [2].
Where this came from
Found through Google Trends and drafted with AI from at least two cited sources. Published automatically after passing our automated checks for sources, wording and safety. It may not have been reviewed by a person yet. Report a correction.