Why is Kalshi trending in California?
Kalshi is trending because prediction markets are being used to forecast the outcome of the US midterms, with significant trading volumes and public attention.
What happened
- Earlier
Prediction markets and pollsters both predict Democrats will win the House and Senate in the midterms. [1]
- 3 Nov 2026 20:30 UTC
Kalshi reports over $1.2 billion has been traded on midterm markets, surpassing its 2024 presidential election volume. [1]
What you need to know
Prediction markets use traders' money to forecast events, unlike traditional polls.
Kalshi and Polymarket have faced criticism and legal challenges over election-related markets.
Significant trading volumes have been recorded on Kalshi and Polymarket ahead of the midterms.
The accuracy of prediction markets compared to traditional polls in forecasting the midterms is still being tested.
Background
Prediction markets, like Kalshi, use traders' bets to predict outcomes. They claim to be more accurate than polls because traders have money on the line. However, they have had high-profile misses, such as in Brazil's presidential election.
Kalshi and Polymarket have grown rapidly, with trading volumes surpassing $1.2 billion on midterm markets. They have also faced criticism and legal challenges, including a lawsuit in Utah over gambling laws.
Prediction markets have been integrated into news coverage, and their accuracy is being tested ahead of the US midterms.
Questions people ask
Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?
Prediction markets claim to be more accurate, but their accuracy has been questioned, especially in high-profile elections.
Why are prediction markets facing legal challenges?
Prediction markets are facing legal challenges over gambling laws and concerns about market manipulation.
How much has been traded on Kalshi and Polymarket ahead of the midterms?
Over $1.2 billion has been traded on midterm markets, surpassing their 2024 presidential election volume.
Where this came from
Found through Google Trends and drafted with AI from at least two cited sources. Published automatically after passing our automated checks for sources, wording and safety. It may not have been reviewed by a person yet. Report a correction.